Unravelling Deep Integration: Local Labour Market Effects of the Brexit Vote

Abstract This paper uses high-frequency data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the UK to study the impact of the threat of trade barriers caused by the Brexit referendum on labour markets between January 2015 and December 2019. We develop measures of local labour market exposure to prospective trade barriers on both goods and services exports if the UK were to leave the EU without a trade deal. We find that regions that were more exposed to potential barriers on professional services exports to the EU experienced a substantial relative decline in online job adverts in the period after the referendum, particularly for higher skilled jobs and professional and managerial occupations. This effect was distinct from the impact of the exchange rate depreciation, uncertainty surrounding future immigration policy and the threat of future barriers on trade in goods.