Optimal Surveillance Interval of Branch Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas

Importance Despite the increasing prevalence of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN), data on the growth and malignant conversion rates based on long-term surveillance cohorts are limited. Many international guidelines recommend surveillance for benign lesions, but the optimal interval and duration are unclear. Objective To determine the optimal surveillance protocol for IPMN and propose which patients may be exempted from surveillance. Design, Setting, and Participants This large-scale, international cohort study examined data of 3825 patients with IPMN treated at 5 tertiary pancreatic centers. Included were patients with branch duct (BD) IPMN who underwent surveillance or surgery between January 1, 1988, and December 31, 2020. After a thorough review, 3656 patients were included in the analytic sample. Changes in cyst size, worrisome features or high-risk stigmata, and malignant conversion rates were assessed. Patients who underwent surveillance over 5 years were compared to suggest discontinuation of surveillance protocol. Clinical data collection began in January 1, 2021, and the mean (SD) follow-up duration was 84 (47.7) months. The data analysis was performed from May 2, 2022, through September 14, 2022. Exposure The patients with BD-IPMN were followed up based on International Association of Pancreatology guidelines. Patients with suspicious malignant neoplasms during surveillance underwent surgical resection. Main Outcome and Measures The main outcome of this study was the optimal follow-up interval and duration of BD-IPMN surveillance. The association among cyst size, growth rate, and progression was examined using descriptive statistics. Results Of the 3656 patients with BD-IPMN in the analytic sample (1973 [54.0%] female; mean [SD] age, 63.7 [10.2] years), 172 (4.7%) were confirmed to have malignant lesions through surgery. Considering cyst growth, the time to develop worrisome features, and malignant conversion, a 1.5-, 1-, and 0.5-year surveillance interval could be optimal for cysts smaller than 20 mm, 20 to 30 mm, and 30 mm, respectively, after initial short-term (6-month) follow-up. Patients with cysts smaller than 20 mm, no worrisome features, and no growth during 5-year surveillance did not show malignant conversion after 5 years of follow-up and had time to progression of greater than 10 years. Conclusions These findings suggest that BD-IPMN surveillance may depend on the size of the cyst and morphologic changes at the initial 6-month follow-up. For patients with small cysts (ie, <20 mm) with no morphologic changes during the initial 5-year surveillance period, surveillance may be discontinued for those unfit for surgery or who have a limited life expectancy of 10 years or less.