Neoclassical Realism as a Theory for Correcting Mistakes: What State X Should Do Next Tuesday

Abstract Neoclassical realism has carved a unique niche by offering a theoretically derived and empirically rich foreign policy analysis framework. Over the years, it has branched out as a theory of mistakes (Type I), a theory of foreign policy (Type II), and a theory of international politics (Type III). This article proposes another challenge to consolidate its offer of a progressive research agenda to position it as a theory for correcting mistakes. The theory of mistakes version differentiates ideal from actual foreign policy. The ideal corresponds to foreign policy that follows the pressures and incentives of the international system; structural realism, the basis for this optimal baseline, is here viewed as a normative theory. If there is a gap between the ideal baseline and the actual outcome, then foreign policy is sub-optimal and therefore costly. According to neoclassical realists, this is the result of the intervention of domestic political processes hijacking foreign policy. It follows that pointing out how to reduce the distorting impact of these domestic variables should help steer foreign policy toward optimality. By identifying the negative consequences that follow from a sub-optimal foreign policy, a theory for correcting mistakes also opens the door to developing prescriptions to manage the inevitable fallout.