Understanding the process and mechanism of agricultural land transition in China: Based on the interactive conversion of cropland and natural ecological land

The interaction conversion between cropland (CL) and natural ecological land (NEL) provides critical insights into the processes of agricultural land transition. However, current frameworks and methodologies for systematically detecting and analyzing this transition are still insufficient and require further refinement. The objective of the study is to develop a theoretical model of agricultural land transition and examines its evolutionary processes in China. The findings reveal that the interactive conversion between CL and NEL exhibits symmetry in both temporal trajectories and spatial patterns. The agricultural land transition can be divided into three stages at the national level, characterized by a shift in the dominant conversion pattern: from NEL-to-CL, to CL-to-NEL, and then back to NEL-to-CL. However, significant imbalances are observed in the transition processes across various provinces. Over time, the four pathways of agricultural land transition-NEL-dominated to NEL-dominated, CL-dominated to CL-dominated, NEL-dominated to CL-dominated, and CL-dominated to NEL-dominated-have yet to progress simultaneously. The dominance of a single pathway gradually became more prominent, with its proportion in different provinces increasing from 25% in the early period to 40% in the later period. Among the various factors influencing agricultural land transition, resource utilization, socio-economic factors, and policy implementation have a stronger impact than natural and climatic conditions. Furthermore, resource flows and planning interventions drive the initial agricultural land transition, while urbanization and population growth induce the second phase. Overall, this study enhances the theoretical understanding of agricultural land transition and offers decision-making guidance for rational and orderly agricultural land use conversion. Its ultimate aim is to provide valuable insights into the sustainable utilization and efficient management of agricultural land globally.