Understanding the Grain Production Growth Pathways Transition and Its Implications for Sustainable Grain Production in China

ABSTRACT The grain production growth pathways transition can achieve the dual strategic objectives of increasing grain production and ensuring ecological security by adjusting the input structure of production factors. However, the current understanding of the transition patterns and driving mechanisms of grain production growth pathways remains inadequate, posing challenges to sustainable grain production. To address this research gap, this study establishes a theoretical analysis framework, proposes methods for identifying and partitioning, and uses panel data to reveal the patterns and driving mechanisms of this transition. The main findings indicate that induced production substitution directly causes the shift in grain production growth pathways from being driven by improvements in grain land productivity to improvements in grain labor productivity. This transition process shows significant differences among grain crop types and regional spatial heterogeneity. The primary contribution of this study is its comprehensive understanding of the driving mechanisms behind grain production growth pathways transition from the perspective of the evolution of production factors. This includes the economic‐social, socio‐institutional, and environmental‐site dimensions of drivers, which influence the induced substitution process of grain production factors and thereby drive the grain production growth pathways transition. We recommend formulating spatial planting plans based on the transition stages and implementing differentiated production targets and subsidy policies for various crops and regions. These findings and recommendations are valuable for ensuring grain security and promoting sustainable production.