Polygenic Prediction of Peripheral Artery Disease and Major Adverse Limb Events

Importance Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a heritable atherosclerotic condition associated with functional decline and high risk for limb loss. With growing knowledge of the genetic basis for PAD and related risk factors, there is potential opportunity to identify individuals at high risk using polygenic risk scores (PRSs). Objective To develop a novel integrated, multiancestry polygenic score for PAD (PRS-PAD) and evaluate its risk estimation for PAD and major adverse limb events in 3 populations. Design, Setting, and Participants This longitudinal cohort study was conducted among individuals with genotyping and electronic health record data in the UK Biobank (2006-2021), All of Us (AoU, 2018-2022), and the Mass General Brigham Biobank (MGBB, 2010-2023). Data were analyzed from July 2023 to February 2025. Exposures PRS-PAD, previously published PAD polygenic scores, and clinical risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcomes were PAD and major adverse limb events, defined as a surrogate of major amputation and acute limb ischemia. Results The study populations included 400 533 individuals from the UK Biobank (median [IQR] age, 58.2 [45.0-71.4] years; 216 215 female participants [53.9%]), 218 500 from AoU (median [IQR] age, 53.6 [37.7-65.0] years; 132 647 female participants [60.7%]), and 32 982 from MGBB (median [IQR] age, 56.0 [32.0-80.0] years; 18 277 female participants [55.4%]). In the UK Biobank validation cohort, PRS-PAD was associated with an odds ratio [OR] per SD increase of 1.63 (95% CI, 1.60-1.68; P < .001). After adjusting for clinical risk factors, the OR for the top 20% of PRS-PAD was 1.68 (95% CI, 1.62-1.74; P < .001) compared to the remainder of the population. Among PAD cases without a history of diabetes, smoking, or chronic kidney disease (n = 3645), 1097 individuals (30.1%) had a high PRS-PAD (top 20%). In incident disease analysis, PRS-PAD improved discrimination (C statistic, 0.761), which was nearly equivalent to the performances of diabetes (C statistic, 0.760) and smoking (C statistic, 0.765). Among individuals with prevalent PAD, high PRS-PAD was associated with an increased risk of incident major adverse limb events in the UK Biobank (hazard ratio [HR], 1.75; 95% CI, 1.18-2.57; P = .005), MGBB (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.06-2.30; P = .02), and AoU (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.06-2.33; P = .03). Conclusions and Relevance This cohort study develops a new PRS that stratifies risk of PAD and adverse limb outcomes. Incorporating polygenic risk into PAD care warrants further investigation to guide screening and tailor management to prevent major adverse limb events.