Exploring the Impact of New Commercial Complexes on Surrounding House Prices Based on a Time-Varying DID Method

The emergence of commercial complexes in a city can improve the economic vitality of both the city and its surrounding environment, which impacts the surrounding housing market. This impact of commercial complexes on surrounding housing prices has been demonstrated by existing literature; however, the complexity of individual commercial complexes is often not incorporated, and the effect is usually studied from a static or single-object perspective. Based on new house transaction data from 2009 to 2018 and data on 54 commercial complexes in Hangzhou, China, in this paper, a time-varying difference-in-difference (DID) model was built. This model was used to explore the driving effect of commercial complexes on surrounding housing prices. The results showed that the following: (1) Commercial complexes exert a significant premium effect on housing prices within 1.0–4.0 km of the surrounding area. (2) The impact of the opening of a commercial complex on the surrounding housing prices is related to the distance between the two, but this relationship is not linear. (3) Compared to the first complex in the region, subsequent complexes are more likely to exert a driving effect on surrounding house prices. Among the first complexes, only those that led to the formation of a business district exerted a significant driving effect on surrounding house prices. (4) The proportion of retail in a commercial complex and whether the complex is located in a core area are the two factors with the strongest impact on the premium effect. A commercial complex in a noncore area or with a lower retail ratio will generate a higher attraction-added value.