报童模式
过度自信效应
后悔
乐观 主义
边距(机器学习)
经济
加权
微观经济学
计量经济学
计算机科学
心理学
数学
业务
社会心理学
统计
营销
机器学习
放射科
供应链
医学
作者
Samuel N. Kirshner,Lusheng Shao
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.ejor.2019.02.023
摘要
Overconfidence and optimism are behavioral biases known to impact newsvendor ordering decisions. We develop a model that accounts for both effects by applying a probability weighting function from Prospect Theory (PT). We apply the model to a price-setting newsvendor problem with reference effects. Contrary to previous work claiming that increased optimism leads a newsvendor to adopt a high margin and low volume strategy, we find that greater optimism typically results in lower margins and higher inventory, aligning with the more intuitive interpretation of optimism. In addition, we find that overconfidence and regret have similar impacts on both inventory levels and pricing.
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