Factors Influencing Traffic Safety and an Accident Prediction Model of Expressway Interchange Exits

We systematically studied the relevant factors influencing traffic safety in the exit area of interchange by investigating and collecting relevant road traffic conditions and traffic accident data in the exit area of the existing expressway interchanges. The control variables with significant interaction effects were eliminated and merged using multivariate variance analysis of the main influencing factors. We established a multivariable linear regression traffic accident prediction model for interchange exit area. The accident prediction model was validated by the traffic accident level of 14 interchange exit areas within the scope of the Hang Xinjing Expressway (G60N). The results show that the relative error between the predicted and actual values of traffic accidents in the interchange exit area is small. The traffic accident prediction model is accurate and practical, which can provide a theoretical reference and technical support for the prediction, evaluation and analysis of the accident variation in the exit area of interchanges.