Health and economic burdens of hypertensive heart disease caused by non-optimal temperature and lead exposure from 1990 to 2030: a global study

This study aimed to investigate the health and economic burdens of hypertensive heart disease (HHD) caused by non-optimal temperature and lead exposure. Health burden data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. Globally, time trends, sex, and age differences in health burden were described. Restricted cubic spline and quantile regression were utilized to examine the correlation between the sociodemographic index and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) or age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized for the projection of ASMR. We calculated the economic burden of the 50 most populous countries. From 1990 to 2021, the global health burden from lead exposure and low temperatures decreased but increased with high temperatures. The highest age-specific mortality occurred among those aged ≥ 95 years. The total economic costs of HHD caused by lead exposure were US$12.32 billion, versus US$5.91 billion for non-optimal temperatures across 50 countries. The increased burden of HHD caused by high temperature was noteworthy. The burden of HHD caused by these two factors was heavier among the older adults, necessitating improved care. The economic burden of HHD caused by lead exposure is approximately twice that of non-optimal temperature.