Development of a Longitudinal Model for Disability Prediction in Older Adults in China: Analysis of CHARLS Data (2015-2020)

Abstract Background Disability profoundly affects older adults’ quality of life and imposes considerable burdens on health care systems in China’s aging society. Timely predictive models are essential for early intervention. Objective We aimed to build effective predictive models of disability for early intervention and management in older adults in China, integrating physical, cognitive, physiological, and psychological factors. Methods Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), spanning from 2015 to 2020 and involving 2450 older individuals initially in good health, were analyzed. The dataset was randomly divided into a training set with 70% data and a testing set with 30% data. LASSO regression with 10-fold cross-validation identified key predictors, which were then used to develop an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model. Model performance was evaluated using receiever operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and clinical decision and impact curves. Variable contributions were interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. Results LASSO regression was used to evaluate 36 potential predictors, resulting in a model incorporating 9 key variables: age, hand grip strength, standing balance, the 5-repetition chair stand test (CS-5), pain, depression, cognition, respiratory function, and comorbidities. The XGBoost model demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.846 (95% CI 0.825‐0.866) for the training set and 0.698 (95% CI 0.654‐0.743) for the testing set. Calibration curves demonstrated reliable predictive accuracy, with mean absolute errors of 0.001 and 0.011 for the training and testing sets, respectively. Clinical decision and impact curves demonstrated significant utility across risk thresholds. SHAP analysis identified pain, respiratory function, and age as top predictors, highlighting their substantial roles in disability risk. Hand grip and the CS-5 also significantly influenced the model. A web-based application was developed for personalized risk assessment and decision-making. Conclusion A reliable predictive model for 5-year disability risk in Chinese older adults was developed and validated. This model enables the identification of high-risk individuals, supports early interventions, and optimizes resource allocation. Future efforts will focus on updating the model with new CHARLS data and validating it with external datasets.