Equivalent Elevation: A New Method to Incorporate Variable Surface Lapse Rates into Mountain Permafrost Modelling

ABSTRACT Permafrost is present at multiple elevations with no defined lower limit in the southern Yukon Territory, Canada. Empirical statistical modelling of permafrost probability in the region required the development of equivalent elevation , a new variable that reflects measured differences between surface air temperature lapse rates below and above treeline. In areas where surface lapse rates are negative (normal) but gentle up to the altitudinal treeline, equivalent elevation results in a compressed elevational range. Where surface lapse rates are positive (inverted) in the forest due to the strength of winter inversions, equivalent elevations calculated for valley floors are higher than those at treeline. There is a strong relationship between the magnitude and sign of surface lapse rates below treeline and the annual amplitude of monthly air temperatures at nearby climate stations, which permits prediction of equivalent elevation for the entire region. Permafrost probability modelling using equivalent elevation produced statistically significant results in several study areas whereas actual elevation values did not. The concept is of particular use where forested areas are underlain by permafrost and may be transferable to areas with similar terrain and climate such as those in the Canadian Northwest Territories, Alaska and Mongolia. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.