Knowledge management, organisational learning and memory in UK retail network planning

Abstract The forecasting of sales from potential store development opportunities is typically supported by quantitative modelling techniques, which vary in their sophistication and practical application between retail firms. While previous research suggests analysts reach outcomes by blending modelled knowledge with intuition and experience, how this occurs in practice is only partially understood. By adopting a qualitative methodology, involving interviews with experts, this paper makes an incremental contribution to the literature by detailing how tacit knowledge is synthesised with modelled, codified knowledge to affect the decision making of senior management in UK-based retail firms. Analysis can also extend to post-opening reviews that offer the opportunity to improve local marketing and product ranging, and from which key lessons can be drawn for subsequent forecasting. Efforts are made by many large retailers to retain expertise and develop institutional 'memory' by codifying tacit knowledge, though these processes often rely upon the expertise embedded within broader intra- and extra- firm social networks. Success, therefore, appears to comprise structured, but flexible forecasting routines alongside a focus on learning, continuity and communication within analyst teams. Keywords: sales forecastingexpert knowledgequantitative modelingretail site selection Acknowledgements This work is supported by the Nuffield Foundation (Grant No: SGS/36175). We would also like to thank the SLA for their support of this project and for helping us in gaining access to numerous location-planning departments of retailers. We appreciate the helpful feedback both from the editor and referees on earlier drafts of the manuscript. Notes For example, these may include the visibility of a site from a main road, the role of perceptions of store accessibility and trade barriers (including effects of bridged rivers and motorways dividing a catchment).