Perceived support from AI chatbots and loneliness among higher vocational college students: a short-term three-wave study of social interaction anxiety and perceived social support

Generative artificial intelligence and AI companion tools are increasingly entering higher vocational college students' learning, emotion regulation, and everyday social communication contexts. This study defines perceived support from AI chatbots as students' subjective experience of receiving support while using AI chat tools, rather than objective social support from real interpersonal sources. A short-term three-wave design was used. Students were recruited through class WeChat groups from four higher vocational colleges in Jiangxi and Guangdong provinces, China, during the spring semester of the 2025-2026 academic year. The intervals between T1, T2, and T3 were approximately 8 weeks. The valid T1 sample included 1,500 participants, and the core three-wave matched sample included 1,200 participants. The revised observed-composite cross-lagged panel model showed that T2 perceived support from AI chatbots negatively predicted T3 loneliness. At the same time, T1 and T2 perceived support from AI chatbots positively predicted social interaction anxiety at the following wave, and social interaction anxiety further predicted loneliness at the following wave. The longitudinal mediation analysis indicated that T1 perceived support from AI chatbots indirectly predicted T3 loneliness through T2 social interaction anxiety. T1 perceived social support moderated the associations of T2 perceived support from AI chatbots with T3 loneliness and T3 social interaction anxiety: under high perceived social support, perceived support from AI chatbots was more likely to be associated with lower subsequent loneliness; under low perceived social support, this compensatory association was not significant. These findings suggest that the psychological meaning of support from AI chatbots is conditional. AI literacy and mental health education in colleges should attend to how AI-based support can be connected with real social support networks.