PREDICTING CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL OF MODERN COAL CHEMICAL INDUSTRY IN INNER MONGOLIA BASED ON LMDI-SD MODEL

Modern coal chemical industry, as a strategic emerging industry in Inner Mongolia, is a major source of energy consumption and CO2 emissions.In this paper, we combine Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method -System Dynamics model to explore the factors influencing the change of CO2 emission and predict its carbon reduction potential of modern coal chemical industry in Inner Mongolia.Results showed that: (1) CO2 emissions of modern coal chemical industry increased sharply from 2010-2020, with an average annual growth rate of 31.4%, which coal-to-olefin products are the most important contributors.(2) According to LMDI analysis, the economic growth effect and energy intensity effect are the main driving factors for the increase of CO2 emissions.(3) Without any emission reduction measures, the CO2 emissions of modern coal chemical industry will reach 107.41 million tons in 2030, and the combination of different low-carbon emission reduction programs is essential to reduce the carbon emissions of modern coal chemical industry.