Machine learning-based radiomics analysis for predicting local recurrence of primary dermatofibrosarcoma protuberans after surgical treatment

Dermatofibrosarcoma protuberans (DFSP) is characterized by locally invasive growth patterns and high local recurrence rates. Accurately identifying patients with high local recurrence risk may benefit patients during follow-up and has potential value for making treatment decisions. This study aimed to investigate whether machine learning-based radiomics models could accurately predict the local recurrence of primary DFSP after surgical treatment.This retrospective study included a total of 146 patients with DFSP who underwent MRI scans between 2010 and 2016 from two different institutions: institution 1 (n = 104) for the training set and institution 2 (n = 42) for the external test set. Three radiomics random survival forest (RSF) models were developed using MRI images. Additionally, the performance of the Ki67 index was compared with the three RSF models in the external validation set.The average concordance index (C-index) scores of the RSF models based on fat-saturation T2W (FS-T2W) images, fat-saturation T1W with gadolinium contrast (FS-T1W + C) images, and both FS-T2W and FS-T1W + C images from 10-fold cross-validation in the training set were 0.855 (95% CI: 0.629, 1.00), 0.873 (95% CI: 0.711, 1.00), and 0.875 (95% CI: 0.688, 1.00), respectively. In the external validation set, the C-indexes of the three trained RSF models were higher than that of the Ki67 index (0.838, 0.754, and 0.866 vs. 0.601, respectively).Random survival forest models developed using radiomics features derived from MRI images were proven helpful for accurate prediction of local recurrence of primary DFSP after surgical treatment and showed better predicting performance than the Ki67 index.