Low ambient temperature and temperature drop between neighbouring days and acute aortic dissection: a case-crossover study

Abstract Aims The incidence of acute aortic dissection (AAD) has been shown to have seasonal variation, but whether this variation can be explained by non-optimum ambient temperature and temperature change between neighbouring days (TCN) is not clear. Methods and results We performed a time-stratified case-crossover study in the Registry of Aortic Dissection in China covering 14 tertiary hospitals in 11 cities from 2009 to 2019. A total of 8182 cases of AAD were included. Weather data at residential address were matched from nearby monitoring stations. Conditional logistic regression model and distributed lag nonlinear model were used to estimate the associations of daily temperature and TCN with AAD, adjusting for possible confounders. We observed an increase of AAD risk with lower temperature cumulated over lag 0–1 day and this association became statistically significant when daily mean temperature was below 24°C. Relative to the referent temperature (28°C), the odds ratios (ORs) of AAD onset at extremely low (−10°C) and low (1°C) temperature cumulated over lag 0–1 day were 2.84 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.69, 4.75] and 2.36 (95% CI: 1.61, 3.47), respectively. A negative TCN was associated with increased risk of AAD. The OR of AAD cumulated over lag 0–6 days was 2.66 (95% CI: 1.76, 4.02) comparing the extremely negative TCN (−7°C) to no temperature change. In contrast, a positive TCN was associated with reduced AAD risk. Conclusion This study provides novel and robust evidence that low ambient temperature and temperature drop between neighbouring days were associated with increased risk of AAD onset. Key Question Incidence of acute aortic dissection (AAD) was reported to have seasonal trends, but it remains unclear whether non-optimum ambient temperature and temperature change between neighbouring days (TCN) is associated with AAD onset. Key Finding Daily mean temperature lower than 24°C was significantly associated with increased risk of AAD at lag 0–1 day. A negative TCN (temperature drop) was associated with increased risk of AAD, whereas a positive TCN was associated with decreased risk. Take Home Message This multi-centre, case-crossover study provides novel and robust evidence that low ambient temperature and temperature drop between neighbouring days were associated with increased AAD risk.