Burden of Oral Diseases in Adults Aged 70 Years and Older: Time‐Trend Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the global burden, drivers, and disparities of oral diseases among adults aged 70 years and older from 1990 to 2021 and project trends to 2040. METHODS: Using Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data, we analyzed incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Decomposition, inequality, and Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling assessed trends, drivers, and future burden. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, global incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of oral diseases in adults aged 70 years and older increased substantially (prevalence: 133.26 to 313.37 million), although age-standardized rates all declined slightly. Decomposition analysis showed population growth accounted for 107.01% to 111.36% of the increase, exceeding 100% due to an offsetting reduction from favorable epidemiological changes. Critically, the disease burden exhibited clear stratification: trends diverged by disease type, and significant disparities persisted across gender and geographic regions. By 2040, the age-standardized incidence rate is projected to reach 18,024 per 100,000 population, and the age-standardized DALY rate is expected to increase. CONCLUSION: The global burden of elderly oral diseases is growing in absolute terms, driven by population growth. Given the stratified patterns identified by disease type, gender, and region, targeted and context-specific public health strategies are urgently needed to improve elderly oral health worldwide.