Yellow River Basin water stress has eased but may persist without enhanced efficiency and sustainable agriculture

Water stress, driven by growing human water demand and climate change, affects human well-being, depletes groundwater, and threatens the health of downstream ecosystems. Mitigating these impacts requires a clear understanding of the complex interplay of human-water-climate dynamics. Here, we present an integrated system approach to assess water stress in the severely water-stressed Yellow River Basin, covering the past 40 years and projecting scenarios until 2100. Our findings reveal extreme water stress in the basin during the 1980s–2000s, which later eased to severe levels due to improved water efficiency. However, severe water stress is not expected to be relieved before 2045 under our scenario analysis. Even under the most sustainable scenario, human water demand could exceed the severe water stress threshold by 22% (ranging from 6% to 40%) in 2100. Cross-system transformations, including enhanced water efficiency and sustainable agricultural practices, remain essential to reducing water stress in the basin. Yellow River Basin water stress has eased over recent 20 years through improved efficiency, precipitation, and resources but may persist until 2045 without sustainable farming and better water management, according to an integrated socio-ecohydrological analysis.