Impact of ENSO on Meiyu‐Baiu‐Changma Rains: Processes, Mechanisms, Modeling, and Future Challenges

Abstract The Meiyu‐Baiu‐Changma (MBC) is a critical rainy season in East Asia. The MBC rainfall is a vital water source but also causes devastating flooding, profoundly impacting agriculture, water resource management, and socio‐economy across East Asia. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a critical role in modulating the interannual variability of MBC. The response of MBC to ENSO is, however, complex, nonlinear, and stochastic, influenced by various ENSO characteristics including the phase, intensity, location, and decay pace. This review synthesizes recent advances in understanding the ENSO–MBC linkage, by incorporating existing literature and our new analyses, to elucidate the underlying mechanisms, model performance, and future projections regarding ENSO's impacts on the MBC under climate change. In this review, an increased correlation between ENSO and MBC over past decades is revealed. The two main paths of ENSO impacting the MBC via modulating the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone, and the changes in the influence of these paths under climate change, are synthesized and analyzed. Seasonal prediction of ENSO‐driven MBC anomalies remains challenging, despite the advances of climate models in simulating and predicting the ENSO‐related large‐scale ocean and atmospheric circulation anomalies. In the future, intensified global warming may lead to a further strengthened impact of ENSO on MBC and increased ENSO‐driven MBC extremes. Exploring greenhouse gas forcing's influence, improving high‐resolution coupled models, refining representation of key dynamic processes, and utilizing artificial intelligence techniques are essential to advance understanding, simulation, prediction, and climate adaptation strategies related to ENSO‐MBC connection.