Possible refugia for Fagaceae species in China under climate change

Abstract China represents a significant global hotspot for species in the family Fagaceae, which are widely distributed across the country and play a crucial role in various ecological and social systems. Consequently, predicting the future distribution and richness of these species in China holds substantial importance. Nevertheless, a thorough assessment of the responses of China’s Fagaceae to future climate change remains absent. This study presents the first national-scale assessment of the future distribution of over 200 Fagaceae species in China, utilizing ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) for the 2050s and 2070s under various climate change scenarios. The SDM projections indicate notable changes in the distribution of Fagaceae species, characterizing with an overall decline in distribution area, an upward migration in elevation, and a northeastward shift in their range. These changes are expected to significantly alter the spatial pattern of species richness, creating possible refugia in the southwestern mountainous regions and the western Qinling Mountains. We further revealed that a considerable amount of China’s natural reserves will show decreased richness of Fagaceae under climate change. Our study systematically evaluates the impact of future climate change on the distribution of Fagaceae species in China, providing potentially useful guidance for conservation planning of these species in China.