Type 1 and type 2 diabetes mortality burden: Predictions for 2030 based on Bayesian age‐period‐cohort analysis of China and global mortality burden from 1990 to 2019

Abstract Aims This study assessed diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality in China and globally from 1990 to 2019, predicting the next decade's trends. Materials and Methods Data came from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The annual percentage change (AAPC) in age‐standardized mortality rates (ASMR) for diabetes (type 1 and type 2) during 1990–2019 was calculated. A Bayesian age‐period‐cohort (BAPC) model predicted diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality from 2020 to 2030. Results In China, type 1 diabetes deaths declined from 6,005 to 4,504 cases (AAPC −2.827), while type 2 diabetes deaths rose from 64,084 to 168,388 cases (AAPC −0.763) from 1990 to 2019. Globally, type 1 diabetes deaths increased from 55,417 to 78,236 cases (AAPC 0.223), and type 2 diabetes deaths increased from 606,407 to 1,472,934 cases (AAPC 0.365). Both China and global trends showed declining type 1 diabetes ASMR. However, female type 2 diabetes ASMR in China initially increased and then decreased, while males had a rebound trend. Peak type 1 diabetes deaths were in the 40–44 age group, and type 2 diabetes peaked in those over 70. BAPC predicted declining diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality burden in China and globally over the next 10 years. Conclusions Type 2 diabetes mortality remained high in China and globally despite decreasing type 1 diabetes mortality over 30 years. Predictions suggest a gradual decrease in diabetes mortality over the next decade, highlighting the need for continued focus on type 2 diabetes prevention and treatment.