Decarbonization Potentials for Automotive Supply Chains: Emission-Intensity Pathways of Carbon-Intensive Hotspots of Battery Electric Vehicles

To keep global warming below 1.5 °C, the road transport sector must decrease its emissions by substituting internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) with battery electric vehicles (BEV). As BEVs can be operated with renewable electricity, the CO2−eq emissions of the supply chain are relevant for future mitigation. The aim of this paper is to derive emission-intensity pathways and to determine the decarbonization impact regarding the lifecycle emissions of BEVs. Therefore, an analysis for steel, aluminum, battery cells, plastic, and glass, and an evaluation of the literature containing present emission intensities (e.g., for steel 1.7 tCO2/t to 2.8 tCO2/t) and reduction potentials, were performed. Based on low-carbon electricity, circular materials, and recycling, as well as technological improvements, emission intensities can be decreased by 69% to 91% by 2050. As a result, the carbon footprint of the reviewed vehicles can be reduced by 47% for supply chain emissions, whereas 25% to 37% of the total lifecycle emissions remain. Considering the scenario studied, BEVs cannot be decarbonized aligned to the 1.5 °C pathway using only avoidance and reduction measures until 2050. Consequently, the application of carbon removals is necessary. However, the applied trajectory and extrapolation relies on material availability and does not consider abatement costs.