Distribution overlap and comparative genomics of two invasive gelechiid moths, Tuta absoluta and Phthorimaea operculella, under climate change

Abstract The tomato leafminer moth, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick), and the potato tuber moth, Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller), are closely related gelechiid species that have rapidly invaded tropical, subtropical, and Mediterranean regions worldwide, causing severe damage to solanaceous crops. We used the optimized MaxEnt model combined with 19 bioclimatic variables to comprehensively predict their potential distributions under current and future climate scenarios. While the distribution areas of the species overlapped significantly, our models predicted T. absoluta could potentially establish into high-latitude and arid areas. To further explore their adaptive mechanisms, we conducted comparative genomics based on the genomes of both species and 20 other insect species. Despite their close relationship, T. absoluta possessed 5.5 times more unique gene families than P. operculella, along with significantly expanded gene families associated with pesticide resistance (P450s: 92 vs. 86), extreme temperature tolerance (heat shock proteins [HSPs]: 62 vs. 58), and desiccation stress tolerance (aquaporins [AQP]: 12 vs. 9). These genomic features suggest that T. absoluta will adapt faster to environmental challenges and has greater potential to invade new areas compared to P. operculella. This study elucidates the patterns of potential distribution and genome evolution for T. absoluta and P. operculella, highlighting their distinct invasion and adaptation strategies. The findings provide both a novel perspective on the habitat suitability of these invasive pests and a scientific basis for climate-adaptive management strategies.