Urban growth and shrinkage with Chinese characteristics: Evidence from Shandong Province, China

Whilst China experiences long-term rapid urbanization, urban shrinkage, as a new normal, has become a common phenomenon in urban development along with growth. In this study, we innovatively established a full-quadrant urban growth-shrinkage model from the dimensions of population, economy, and space. We identified the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of city growth and shrinkage at the county scale based on multi-source data, hot spot analysis, and stepwise regression, and explored the differences and trends among administrative units with Chinese characteristics in Shandong, China, a province that attaches great importance to the high-quality development of county economy but has large internal differences. The results are as follows. (1) Counties with population- and economy-related shrinkage in Shandong Province gradually increased and tended to intensify. In 2020, it presented a pattern of urban growth along the river and the sea area and significant shrinkage in the rest of the region. Meanwhile, the urban growth in the spatial dimension was more obvious, and the hotspot areas in population and economy presented a dual-core structure (Ji'nan and Qingdao). Spatially, the development along the Yellow River and southern Shandong grew slowly. (2) The growth and shrinkage and their evolution trends of municipal districts, counties, and county-level cities were significantly unique; that is, while the county-level units in the total factor growth tended to decrease, all dimensions of their shrinkage and growth tended to be unique. (3) The influencing factors of urban growth and shrinkage were roughly the same. A good social foundation, sound economic development conditions, and strong innovative vitality could promote urban growth, but their impact on different county-level units in different dimensions varied significantly.