The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the natural gas trade: A network structure dependence perspective

Given the increasing complexity of multilateral relations in the natural gas trade along the Belt and Road (B&R), it is necessary to quantify the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on natural gas trade from the perspective of structure dependence. First, the multilateral trade of natural gas along B&R is abstracted as the liquefied natural gas and pipeline natural gas trade networks (BR-LNGTN and BR-PNGTN, respectively). Second, we analyze the evolution of the network structure and the status change of countries before and after the implementation of the BRI. Finally, based on the temporal exponential random graph models (TERGMs), the evolutionary mechanism of the natural gas trade network and impact of the BRI on the evolutionary mechanism are comprehensively studied. The results show that the implementation of the BRI promotes the network size, but the advantages of trade cooperation have not been fully realized. China and India are the authoritative trading countries, while Russia and Qatar are the primary intermediary countries. Structure dependence, time dependence and trade facilitation significantly impact the generation of the network, but the explanatory power of the exogenous attributes decrease, which indicates that the trade conditions along B&R have been significantly improved.