Predicting 2‐year weight loss through temporally specific earlier losses, relevant behaviors, and their psychological correlates: Implications for behavioral treatment architectures

Maintaining loss of weight beyond an initial 6–9 months remains problematic, with research indicating little recent progress. A poor understanding of how and when prior weight loss, behavioral changes, and psychosocial predictors are associated with long‐term weight changes persists. To better‐inform behavioral treatments for long‐term success with weight loss, women with obesity ( N = 86; M age = 48.6 years) volunteered for research incorporating community‐based weight‐management treatments. They were assessed at months 6, 12, and 24 on theory‐based psychosocial and behavioral factors, and over 24 months on weight. Considering the included times and temporal ranges, it was found that change in weight from month 6–24 was the strongest predictor of 24‐month weight change, and physical activity and fruit/vegetable intake at month 24 best predicted that change in weight. Self‐regulation, self‐efficacy, and mood at month 24 best predicted both physical activity and fruit/vegetable intake at month 24, with body satisfaction also a significant predictor of physical activity. From these data, mediation analyses found that the predictions of long‐term weight loss by scores of self‐regulation, self‐efficacy, body satisfaction, and mood at month 24 were significantly mediated by fruit/vegetable intake and physical activity in separate equations. Findings indicated both psychosocial and behavioral targets, and timing for those targets, most indicative of long‐term success with weight loss.