Unbiased Recursive Partitioning Enables Robust and Reliable Outcome Prediction in Acute Spinal Cord Injury

Neurological disorders usually present very heterogeneous recovery patterns. Nonetheless, accurate prediction of future clinical end-points and robust definition of homogeneous cohorts are necessary for scientific investigation and targeted care. For this, unbiased recursive partitioning with conditional inference trees (URP-CTREE) have received increasing attention in medical research, especially, but not limited to traumatic spinal cord injuries (SCIs). URP-CTREE was introduced to SCI as a clinical guidance tool to explore and define homogeneous outcome groups by clinical means, while providing high accuracy in predicting future clinical outcomes. The validity and predictive value of URP-CTREE to provide improvements compared with other more common approaches applied by clinicians has recently come under critical scrutiny. Therefore, a comprehensive simulation study based on traumatic, cervical complete spinal cord injuries provides a framework to investigate and quantify the issues raised. First, we assessed the replicability and robustness of URP-CTREE to identify homogeneous subgroups. Second, we implemented a prediction performance comparison of URP-CTREE with traditional statistical techniques, such as linear or logistic regression, and a novel machine learning method. URP-CTREE's ability to identify homogeneous subgroups proved to be replicable and robust. In terms of prediction, URP-CTREE yielded a high prognostic performance comparable to a machine learning algorithm. The simulation study provides strong evidence for the robustness of URP-CTREE, which is achieved without compromising prediction accuracy. The slightly lower prediction performance is offset by URP-CTREE's straightforward interpretation and application in clinical settings based on simple, data-driven decision rules.