Clinical and pathological predictors of recurrence in breast cancer patients achieving pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy

Introduction Despite the excellent prognosis associated with pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), some patients still develop recurrence. Here, we investigated the outcomes of breast cancer patients with pCR, as well as the clinical and pathological predictors of cancer recurrence in these patients. Materials and methods Of the 1599 breast cancer patients treated with NAC, we evaluated 394 patients who achieved pCR between January 2007 and December 2016. pCR was defined as no evidence of invasive cancer in breast. Residual in situ ductal and axillary lymph node diseases were not considered. We analyzed the outcomes using the Kaplan–Meier method. We assessed the association of clinical and pathological predictors with cancer recurrence using the cox proportional hazards regression model. Results The median follow-up time was 63 months. The 5-year disease-free survival rate was 92.3%. Cancer recurrence was observed in 28 patients (7.1%): local recurrence 8 patients (2.0%), visceral metastasis 10 patients (2.5%), and brain metastasis 10 patients (2.5%). Brain metastases were found in patients with HER2 type breast cancer. The significant predictors of cancer recurrence were HER2 positivity (p = 0.04), clinical tumor size (p < 0.01), and lymph node metastasis (p < 0.01) before NAC on univariate analysis and only lymph node metastasis on multivariate analysis. Conclusion Patients achieving pCR to NAC showed excellent outcomes. Advanced clinical stage, large tumor size, presence of lymph node metastasis, and HER2 positivity before NAC were identified as significant predictors of cancer recurrence. Residual in situ ductal and lymph node diseases after NAC were not significant predictors.