Global warming policy: some economic implications

Many analysts believe that the emissions of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity are contributing to global warming, but the linkage is highly uncertain. The largest such source of these gases is carbon dioxide (CO2) from the growing consumption of fossil fuels. Consequently, the conservation of fossil fuels figures prominently in any strategy to reduce the threat of global warming. Because there is considerable uncertainty about the benefits of reducing CO2 emissions but the costs of conservation can be readily quantified, some analysts have suggested that reducing the emissions is like insurance. In this article, Stephen Brown integrates a growing literature on the damage caused by global warming with a world energy model to do a cost-benefit analysis of U.S. compliance with the accord adopted at the United Nations conference on global warming held in late 1997. His analysis shows that reducing U.S. emissions to comply with the accord would represent too much insurance against global warming.