Research progress and prospects of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in China: technology, capacity, and policy

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is recognized as an indispensable pathway for decarbonizing the aviation industry due to its compatibility with existing infrastructure and significant carbon reduction potential. This paper systematically reviews the current status and prospects of China’s SAF sector, with a focus on technological pathways, production capacity, and policy frameworks. Through a comparative analysis of five ASTM-certified routes—HEFA, FT, ATJ, PtL, and others—key metrics including technological maturity, carbon reduction efficiency, and economic feasibility are evaluated. Findings indicate that China has established an initial industrial system dominated by HEFA, with projected capacity reaching 2.5 million tons per year by 2025, accounting for 2%–3% of the nation’s jet fuel consumption. However, the industry continues to face three major bottlenecks: unstable feedstock supply, high production costs, and an underdeveloped policy mechanism. A multi-scenario sensitivity analysis further reveals that mandatory blending ratios and feedstock costs are the most critical variables influencing SAF demand. To address these challenges, this study proposes a coordinated strategy encompassing feedstock diversification, technological innovation, and policy reinforcement. This research offers a scientific basis for accelerating SAF commercialization in China and supporting global aviation’s transition to carbon neutrality.