The Role of Virtual Water Flows in Physical Water Scarcity: The Case of Central Asia

Water scarcity in Central Asia was analyzed by using two water scarcity indices at the scale of sub-basin areas (SBAs): water stress index (consumption-to-availability ratio) and water shortage index (water availability per capita). These indices were calculated for a baseline scenario that included virtual water flows, and again for a scenario where international trade was eliminated, thus assessing the role of virtual water flows in water scarcity. Over 80% of the study area population suffers from water stress and approximately 50% from water shortage as well. Removing virtual water flows considerably decreased water scarcity for approximately half the population. Reducing the exports of water-intensive products could thus be an option, along with other more traditional measures, for alleviating water scarcity in Central Asia.