Anticipation, Action and Consequences

In his short paper on ASR, 1936, Merton listed extensively various factors to cause unanticipated consequences in purposive social action, and showed a few cases in which certain patterns can be identified among anticipation, action and consequences. This topic was later developed into a Chapter in his Social Theory and Social Structure (1957) as “The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy”. Merton's original paper is important at least in the following senses : Unanticipated consequences are already emerging in anticipation before execution of action, and in some cases, certain patterns among anticipation, action and consequences can be traced. In order to further develop this topic, which had been suggested by Merton in such extensive scopes, it should be necessary to coordinate the problems from certain view point. The writer of this paper tries to do so, firstly, by reviewing them in terms of role differentiation into “prophet”, “actor” and “observer” for anticipation, action and consequences respectively. Then, he focusses those cases enumerated by Merton on the uncertain nature of expectation of actor in anticipating consequences, and points out the peculiar characteristics in the “prophecies” and “basic value” cases as definition of the situation by others. This is the process for the actor to overcome the uncertainty in his expectation of the consquences of the contemplated action. Another possibility to overcome this uncertainty is suggested. It is called “auxiliary means” to strengthen those means already in hand with the uncertain expectation of consequences kept uncertain. With this “auxiliary means” corresponds “auxiliary purpose”, which shall be instrumental in producing unanticipated consequences for actor not only in the new “Auxiliary value area” but also in the “original value area” as both are necessarily interrelated. Two propositions are made at the end : First for actor's tendency to depend on the definition of situation provided by others, and Second for actor's tendency to rely on the “auxiliary means” in his uncertain anticipation.