Accuracy of physical examination versus Doppler ultrasonography for determining maturity in postoperative arteriovenous fistula formation

BACKGROUND: Differentiating between arteriovenous fistula (AVF) maturation and failure can help determine which AVF will undergo successful canulation and which ones will require immediate rescue. METHODS: A prospective observational study was conducted at Vajira Hospital in Bangkok, Thailand, between October 2020-November 2022. A single vascular surgeon performed a physical examination on patients with chronic kidney disease undergoing AVF placement, and a radiologist conducted Doppler ultrasonography during the second and sixth postoperative weeks. Dialysis nurses determined AVF maturity by performing cannulation. The study compared the accuracy of physical examination and Doppler ultrasonography. A model was developed to predict the success of AVF use. RESULTS: Out Of the 125 recruited patients, 81% demonstrate unassisted maturation of their AVF. The male sex and brachiocephalic type are associated with AVF maturation. The physical examination findings of palpable thrill and the absence of a strong pulse at the 6th week show an area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) value of 0.79. Similarly, arterial end-diastolic velocity on ultrasonography at the 6th week also demonstrates a comparable predictive value with an AUC of 0.82 (p = 0.697). Meanwhile, the model that combined end-diastolic velocity and venous volume flow yields the best results for predicting AVF maturation, with an AUC of 0.92. These models provide more accurate predictions compared to physical examination alone (AUC: 0.92 vs. 0.79; p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Although a prudent physician predicts AVF maturation through a thorough physical examination, Doppler ultrasonography is preferred in anticipating the success of postoperative AVF placement.