Sustainable global irrigation expansion could support only two thirds of croplands under 1.5°C and 3°C warming

The "code" folder contains code and related data to (1) run regression to obtain crop yield sensitivities to temperature and precipitation, (2) conduct bootstrapping approach to resample crop data 1,000 times to derive regression coefficients, and (3) derive pixel-level crop yield changes and additional irrigation needs under 1.5°C and 3°C warming. The "crop_production_summary.xlsx" gives the global and country-level aggregated crop production (e.g., wheat, maize, rice and barley) (unit: 10^12 kcal) during Baseline periods (1996-2005), 1.5°C and 3°C warming above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) using three irrigation adaptation scenarios: (i) without irrigation adaptation, which means using the historical irrigation extent around 2000 (ii) with full irrigation adaptation, which means applying 100% irrigation over all croplands and (iii) with sustainable irrigation adaptation, which selectively applies irrigation where irrigation practices do not deplete freshwater stocks and impair aquatic ecosystems. The "irr_need_summary.xlsx" gives the global and country-level sustainable and unsustainable irrigation area (unit: million hectares) of each crop (e.g., wheat, maize, rice and barley) in 2000 and additional irrigation area needed to offset warming-induced crop yield losses under 1.5°C and 3°C warming above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). The "irrigation needed" folder contains pixel-level additional irrigation area fraction for each crop needed to offset warming-induced crop yield losses under 1.5°C and 3°C warming above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). The "yield change" folder contains pixel-level crop yield change for each crop under 1.5°C and 3°C warming above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). The "irrigation_sustainable" folder contains pixel-level data on irrigation water sustainability during the Baseline periods (1996-2005) and under 1.5°C and 3°C warming scenarios compared to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). In this dataset, pixels with values <1 indicate that sustainable irrigation can be applied, while values >=1 indicate that irrigation will be unsustainable. For further details, please contact Liyin He (lhe@carnegiescience.edu) or Lorenzo Rosa (lrosa@carnegiescience.edu).