A Theoretical Model for Predicting Tropical Cyclone Central Pressure

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) central pressure p c and maximum wind speed V m are two primary metrics for assessing TC intensity. Current theories of TC intensity change mainly focus on the change of V m , but the change of p c has not been well understood so far. In this study, a theoretical model for p c tendency is developed, based on a recent theory of V m tendency and a theoretical relationship between V m tendency and p c tendency derived through two approaches. One approach is based on Bernoulli’s principle combined with the TC Carnot theorem, and the other approach derives from the inner-core cyclostrophic wind balance. Both approaches ultimately yield a unified (i.e., mathematically similar) equation for the relationship between V m tendency and p c tendency and thus a unified theoretical model for p c tendency. The theoretical model is assessed through a large number of full-physics idealized numerical simulations. Results show that the theoretical relationship between V m tendency and p c tendency is supported by the simulations. Given the initial V m , initial p c , and steady-state V m , the theoretical model can well reproduce the time evolution of p c for all simulations. The theoretical relationship between V m tendency and p c tendency is also supported by best track TC data from the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific. This study provides a new perspective for understanding p c tendency and has valuable implications for operational TC p c prediction.