Changes in characteristics and risk of freshwater microplastics under global warming

Microplastics present a significant threat to freshwater ecosystems. However, the impact of global warming on their characteristics and associated risks remains uncertain. This study collected 2793 sample sites from literature and datasets to create a new risk assessment and rank methodology, known as the Multi-characteristics Potential Ecological Risk Index (MPERI), which incorporates various microplastic characteristics, such as concentration, size distribution, color, shape, and polymer diversity. Using regression random forest models (RRF), this study predicted that a 10 °C increase would raise microplastic concentration from 12,465.34 ± 68,603.87 to 13,387.17 ± 60,692.96 particles/m3. The percentage of small-size microplastics initially decreased (from 69.10 % to 68.72 %) and then increased (from 68.72 % to 68.78 %), while the diversity of color, shape, and polymer decreased by 0.29 %, 3.24 %, and 0.17 %, respectively. Furthermore, global warming could increase the rank of microplastic risks from high (405.25 ± 528.9) to dangerous (535.37 ± 582.03) based on the MPERI method. Most countries would experience an increase in risk values, with Indonesia and Vietnam transitioning from low to medium risk, and China and Malaysia transitioning from high to dangerous risk. The feature importance assessment of the RRF model indicated that concentration was the most influential variable in determining the change in risk values. While other microplastic characteristics had a lesser impact compared to concentration, they still influenced the risk ranking. This study highlights the role of global warming in shaping microplastic risks.