Shallow slow earthquakes to decipher future catastrophic earthquakes in the Guerrero seismic gap.

Abstract The Guerrero seismic gap is presumed to be a major source of seismic and tsunami hazard along the Mexican subduction zone. Until recently, there were limited observations to describe the shallow portion of the plate interface in Guerrero. For this reason, we deployed offshore instrumentation to gain new seismic data and identify the extent of the seismogenic zone inside the Guerrero gap. We discovered episodic shallow tremors and potential slow slip events which, together with repeating earthquakes, seismicity, residual gravity and residual bathymetry suggest that a portion of the shallow plate interface in the Guerrero seismic gap undergoes stable slip. This mechanical condition may not only explain the long return period of large earthquakes with origins inside the Guerrero seismic gap, but also reveal why the rupture from past M<8 earthquakes on adjacent megathrust fault segments did not propagate into the gap to encompass a larger slip area. Nevertheless, a large enough earthquake initiating nearby could rupture through the entire Guerrero seismic gap if driven by dynamic rupture effects.