Spatio-temporal characteristics and decoupling relationship of new-type urbanization and carbon emissions at the county Level: A case study of Zhejiang Province, China

Coordinating the relationship between new-type urbanization (NTU) and carbon emission (CE) reduction has emerged as a primary strategic objective in China. However, previous studies on this subject have predominantly focused on the unidirectional impact of NTU on CE, neglecting their spatio-temporal characteristics and the potential for a decoupling relationship. Focusing on the county-level areas in Zhejiang Province, this study establishes an evaluation system for measuring NTU and investigates the spatio-temporal characteristics and evolving decoupling relationship of NTU and CE from 2007 to 2021, along with the influencing factors. The results are shown as follows: (1) CE levels in Zhejiang's counties are predominantly higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest, with minimal temporal fluctuations. Concurrently, the collective NTU in these counties has witnessed a rapid increase, with a growing disparity in NTU levels and a concentration of higher NTU primarily in the northern regions. (2) From 2007 to 2021, the decoupling relationship between NTU and CE in Zhejiang's counties evolved from suboptimal to significantly improved, ultimately achieving continuous optimization, with the proportion of counties in the "strong decoupling II" category increasing to 60.7% in the final phase. (3) The most significant influencing factors for decoupling evolved from economic NTU predominance in 2007 to societal NTU in 2012, and further progressed to population NTU in 2022. (4) Informed by the types of decoupling and evolutionary factors, we propose strategies and implications aimed at fostering the high-quality, synergistic development of NTU and CE. These findings provide theoretical and empirical underpinnings for the high-quality attainment of NTU and the dual carbon objectives in China.