Econometric modeling of tobacco exports in the milieu of changing global and national policy regimes: repercussions on the Indian tobacco sector

Introduction Tobacco, an important commercial crop, plays a crucial role in farmers' incomes and livelihoods to a sizable population and contributes significant exchange earnings to the Indian economy. Currently, India is the second-largest tobacco producer after China, with a production of 758 million kg (13% of global production) and exports of ~190 million kg of tobacco (9% of global tobacco export volume). However, there are uncertainties surrounding the tobacco sector, such as growing public health and environmental issues associated with tobacco production and consumption and changing national and international tobacco-related policy regimes. In this context, the current study investigates the determinants of tobacco exports and geographical shifts in export destinations over the years. Methods The statistical models employed are co-integration, and vector error-correlation models to test the short-run and long-run dynamics relationship between tobacco exports and the explanatory variables, and the Markov chain approach to find out geographical shifts in export destinations. Results and discussion The econometric model estimated the relationship between the tobacco export volume with domestic production, export price, and global demand for Indian tobacco, and investigated the geographical shift in export destinations of tobacco in the context of changing global and national policy regimes on the sector. The econometric modeling framework confirms that there exists a statistically significant relationship between Indian tobacco export demand, domestic production, export price, and world demand for Indian tobacco. The geographical shift was evident in major export destinations during the post-WHO-FCTC (Framework Convention on Tobacco Control) regime. The model findings direct that India should take advantage of the export price, and global demand for tobacco as India ratified WHO-FCTC; there is no scope for horizontal expansion of the area under tobacco. This modeling framework aids as a tool to direct and explore the possible options with a greater emphasis on export-centric farming system in tobacco production by augmenting crop compliance and quality to meet the standards of international markets.