Assessment of temporal and spatial progress of urban resilience in Guangzhou under rainstorm scenarios

In the face of increasingly severe flood disasters, urban resilience is a new path for future urban development. Based on a review of relevant literature on urban resilience, we focusing on flood disaster scenes, present the perspective of “pressure - state - response” to the urban resilience process decomposition based on resilience city theories, disaster theories and ecology theories. We establish the rain flood situation of quantitative evaluation model of city resilience, combined with rough set theory to the urban economy, society and ecological integrated into three subsystems elements to investigate the spatiotemporal resilience of Guangzhou city. The results indicate that the overall urban resilience of Guangzhou from 2015 to 2019 is at a medium level, and shows a slight upward trend, among which the state resilience shows a sharp decline trend. The areas with high comprehensive resilience are mainly distributed in the main urban area, while the areas with weak comprehensive resilience are mainly distributed in the new urban development area. The index of vegetation coverage, regional economic spatial stability and average rainfall showed the most obvious decreasing trend. From 2050 to 2070, the future urban resilience of Guangzhou under each RCPS model will develop to a deteriorating trend, among which, the urban resilience under 2050 RCP2.6 scenario is the best, and the urban resilience under 2070 RCP8.5 scenario is the best. Finally, we put forward a systematic urban resilience improvement strategy from three aspects of pressure resilience, state resilience and response resilience. This study is helpful to provide detailed decision-making assistance for urban resilience construction and case support for quantitative research on urban resilience.