Shallow-landslide stability evaluation in loess areas according to the Revised Infinite Slope Model: a case study of the 7.25 Tianshui sliding-flow landslide events of 2013 in the southwest of the Loess Plateau, China

Abstract. The occurrence of shallow loess landslides induced by prolonged heavy rainfall is prevalent in loess-dominated regions, often leading to property damage, human casualties, and sediment pollution. Developing an accurate prediction model for shallow landslides in loess areas is crucial for effective landslide mitigation. In 2013, prolonged heavy rains from 19–25 July triggered mass sliding-flow loess landslides in Tianshui, China. Landslide data, along with the characteristics of the sliding-flow loess landslides, were obtained through extensive field investigations and remote sensing interpretations. The sliding-flow loess landslide event demonstrated clustering, high density, small areas, and long travel distance. The depth of the sliding surface is correlated with the saturated layer resulting from rainfall infiltration; it is typically less than 2 m deep and negatively correlated with slope steepness. Based on the common characteristics of shallow loess landslides, the mechanisms involved in the sliding-flow landslide are proposed. The Revised Infinite Slope Model (RISM) was introduced using an equal differential unit method to address deficiencies when the safety factor remains constant or increases with increasing slope greater than 40°, as calculated using the Taylor slope infinite model. The relationship between the critical depth and the slope of the shallow loess landslide was determined. The intensity–duration (I–D) prediction curve of the rainfall-induced shallow loess landslides for different slopes was constructed and combined with the characteristics of rainfall infiltration for use in forecasting regional shallow loess landslides. Additionally, the influence of loess strength on the shallow loess landslide stability was analyzed. The shallow loess landslide stability responds to slope and cohesion but is not sensitive to the internal friction angle.