The impacts of household structure transitions on household carbon emissions in China

Household consumption has great potential to reduce CO2 emissions from the demand side which is an important way to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. However, the shrinking household size will have a significant impact on household carbon emissions. In this paper, we have investigated the impacts of the decrease in Chinese household size on the direct and indirect household carbon emissions by using the input-output model and the bidirectional fixed-effect model, based on China's Urban Household Income and Expenditure Survey dataset. Results have shown that household size has a significant negative effect on household carbon emissions per capita, and such a negative effect on indirect carbon emissions is much greater than that on direct carbon emissions in China. Reducing the average household size by one has led to an increase of 0.128 t of the direct household carbon emissions per capita and 1.344 t of indirect household carbon emissions per capita, respectively. We also projected the potential change of household carbon emissions by 2030 under scenarios of increasing total population and shrinking household size and found that there may generate a 15.3%–18.8% growth in household carbon emissions compared to that in 2012, with other demographic characteristics unchanged.