Can the Clean Heating Policy reduce carbon emissions? Evidence from northern China

Abstract The Clean Heating Policy aims to solve the problems of excessive energy consumption and severe air pollution caused by heating in winter in northern China. Whether it can effectively reduce carbon emissions remains underexplored. Using the panel data of 65 cities in Northern China from 2010 to 2019, this paper constructs a dynamic spatial DID model to empirically study the carbon reduction effect of Clean Heating Policy and its influence channels. The results are as follows: Firstly, Clean Heating Policy can significantly reduce carbon emissions, which still holds after multiple robustness tests. The policy has a lag effect, but its spatial spillover effect and long-term effect are not significant. Secondly, the carbon reduction effect of Clean Heating Policy is mainly achieved through optimizing the energy structure and improving the thermal efficiency of heat consumer terminals. Thirdly, the carbon reduction effect varies by city and emission fields. It’s only significantly established in low-subsidy cities, high-carbon cities and household fields. Fourthly, there is a synergistic reduction relationship between Clean Heating Policy and Low-carbon City policy. Based on the results, this paper puts forward policy implications such as promoting policies in multiple ways and improving subsidy efficiency, which can provide reference for other countries.