A new framework for multi-level territorial spatial zoning management: Integrating ecosystem services supply-demand balance and land use structure

The supply-demand balance of ecosystem services (ESs balance) is a research hotspot. Previous studies have explored spatio-temporal patterns of ESs supply, demand, and balance, but have neglected the inherent relationship between ESs balance and land use structure, which impedes the development of direct and effective land use regulatory strategies. This study assessed the balance of six ESs (i.e., timber production (TP), food production (FP), water retention (WR), carbon sequestration (CS), soil retention (SR), and habitat quality (HQ)) by the index of ecological relative surplus ratio (ERSR) at 30 m × 30 m pixel scale, and identified ESs balance bundles (ESBBs) in Lancang County, a typical mountainous region in China. It also defined the land use proportion thresholds for achieving different objectives of ESs balance, and proposed land use regulatory strategies accordingly. The results showed that: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the supply of six ESs exceeded the demand in Lancang County, and the surplus of different ESs changed over time. ESs balance also exhibited spatial heterogeneity, and ESs imbalance aggravated in some areas. Three ESBBs were divided as FP-WR-SR integrated bundle, TP–CS–HQ integrated bundle, and Integrated promotion bundle at the township scale. (2) Cropland, built-up land, and forest were the key land use types that affected the balance of the six ESs. Moreover, the land use proportion thresholds under the objectives of "ERSR ≥0″ and "ERSR ≥1″ were determined, and they differed by ES type and objective. (3) For each ESBB, ESs comprehensive management zones were delineated at the multi-scales of the township and 1 km × 1 km grid. Regulatory strategies oriented by "reducing/increasing/maintaining the proportion of certain land use types" were suggested under different objectives. This study developed a framework for "multi-level zoning management of 'county – ESs balance bundle – township – grid' for promoting ESs balance by land use structure regulation" that aligned with China's territorial spatial planning hierarchy at the county and township levels. It could inform the design of a scientific and orderly territorial spatial pattern with a high-level ESs balance at various scales (e.g., counties, agglomerations, provinces, and cities) and regions. However, this framework could not be directly applied to land use spatial optimization at pixel scale. Further research is needed to integrate land use simulation models, such as the mixed-cell cellular automata (MCCA) model, to achieve ESs balance objectives at finer scales.