The Impact of Climate Change and Grain Planting Structure Change on Irrigation Water Requirement for Main Grain Crops in Mainland China

To understand the change in irrigation water requirement (IWR) in China under the changing climate conditions and grain planting structures, this paper focused on rice, wheat and maize and analyzed the IWR change in each county under the background of climate change and the adjustment of planting structure by means of the China Agro-Ecological Zones (China-AEZ) model. The results show that: (1) Climate change causes the increase of IWR. Compared with the 1961–1990 period, the average IWR of counties in China increased by 9.31 mm and 16.50% under the climate conditions of the 1981–2010 period. Regionally, the water consumption effect of climate change is stronger in water-poor areas than in water-rich areas. (2) Planting structure change causes the decrease of IWR. Compared with 1990, under the planting structure in 2014, the average IWR of counties in China decreased by 6.61 mm and 11.41%. Regionally, the water-saving effect of the change in planting structure in the north is stronger than that in the south. (3) With the change in climate conditions and planting structure, the average IWR of counties in China first increased and then decreased, with an overall increase of 2.06 mm and 3.56%. Regionally, the IWR in most parts of the country has shown a decreasing trend, while the IWR in northwestern and north China, where water resources are relatively scarce, has increased significantly. (4) Nationally, the change in IWR is dominated by climate change, and the overall trend is in the direction of water consumption. Therefore, adjusting the crop planting structure is a promising way to save irrigation water. To adapt to the pressures on water resources caused by climate change, the proportion of crops with water-saving advantages should be increased in the corresponding areas to achieve regional water savings. In northwest China, which mainly relies on irrigation water, many crops with low IWR should be planted, such as wheat and maize, while the planting proportion of rice should be reduced; furthermore, the planting proportion of wheat should be reduced, and the planting proportion of maize should be increased in north China. Finally, rice with high IWR should be more localized in central, southern and northeastern China.