Inclusive green growth effects of China’s artificial intelligence development

[Objective] In the context of the increasingly urgent need for green and low-carbon transition of economy and society, exploring the impact and mechanisms of artificial intelligence (AI) development on inclusive green growth has become a crucial research priority. [Methods] Using panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2021, this study measured the levels of inclusive green growth. Building upon this, methods such as the mediating effect model and panel threshold model were employed to empirically examine the impact of AI on urban inclusive green growth and its underlying mechanisms. [Results] The study found that: (1) current AI development significantly promoted urban inclusive green growth, but exhibited a typical inverted U-shaped relationship. Specifically, as AI levels increased, its impact on urban inclusive green growth first increased and then decreased. The current AI development level (0.003) was substantially below the theoretical optimal threshold (0.441). This conclusion remained valid after using Bartik instrumental variables and other robustness tests. (2) In regions with weak digital infrastructure, non-resource-based cities, and peripheral cities, the empowering effect of AI on inclusive green growth was more pronounced. (3) AI indirectly promoted urban inclusive green growth mainly through three channels: optimizing industrial structure, driving technological innovation, and accumulating human capital. (4) Local government competition could dynamically strengthen the empowering effect of AI on urban inclusive green growth. Among them, environmental competition showed a significant positive U-shaped strengthening mechanism, and its coordination with economic competition could better unleash the potential of AI for inclusive green growth. [Conclusion] It is necessary to diversify AI’s transmission channels to promote urban inclusive green growth, formulate differentiated support policies for weak areas, and properly guide local competition, so as to accelerate the release of growth dividends.