预言
随机性
涡扇发动机
随机效应模型
可靠性(半导体)
威布尔分布
计算机科学
数学
可靠性工程
工程类
统计
医学
功率(物理)
荟萃分析
物理
量子力学
汽车工程
内科学
作者
Fengfei Wang,Shengjin Tang,Liang Li,Xiaofeng Sun,Yu Chen,Xiaosheng Si
出处
期刊:Chinese Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics
[Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers]
日期:2023-04-01
卷期号:34 (2): 530-542
被引量:1
标识
DOI:10.23919/jsee.2023.000042
摘要
Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial components in prognostics and health management (PHM) of aero-engines. This paper proposes an RUL prediction method of aero-engines considering the randomness of failure threshold. Firstly, a random-coefficient regression (RCR) model is used to model the degradation process of aeroengines. Then, the RUL distribution based on fixed failure threshold is derived. The prior parameters of the degradation model are calculated by a two-step maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method and the random coefficient is updated in real time under the Bayesian framework. The failure threshold in this paper is defined by the actual degradation process of aeroengines. After that, a expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is proposed to estimate the underlying failure threshold of aeroengines. In addition, the conditional probability is used to satisfy the limitation of failure threshold. Then, based on above results, an analytical expression of RUL distribution of aero-engines based on the RCR model considering random failure threshold (RFT) is derived in a closed-form. Finally, a case study of turbofan engine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the RUL prediction method and the parameters estimation method of failure threshold proposed.
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