Prognostic significance of dynamic changes in liver stiffness measurement in patients with chronic hepatitis B and compensated advanced chronic liver disease

Abstract Background and Aim Liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) are promising for monitoring disease progression or regression. We assessed the prognostic significance of dynamic changes in LSM over time on liver‐related events (LREs) and death in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). Methods This retrospective study included 1272 patients with CHB and cACLD who underwent at least two measurements, including LSM and fibrosis score based on four factors (FIB‐4). ΔLSM was defined as [(follow‐up LSM − baseline LSM)/baseline LSM × 100]. We recorded LREs and all‐cause mortality during a median follow‐up time of 46 months. Hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) for outcomes were calculated using Cox regression. Results Baseline FIB‐4, baseline LSM, ΔFIB‐4, ΔLSM, and ΔLSM/year were independently and simultaneously associated with LREs (adjusted HR, 1.04, 95% CI, 1.00–1.07; 1.02, 95% CI, 1.01–1.03; 1.06, 95% CI, 1.03–1.09; 1.96, 95% CI, 1.63–2.35, 1.02, 95% CI, 1.01–1.04, respectively). The baseline LSM combined with the ΔLSM achieved the highest Harrell's C (0.751), integrated AUC (0.776), and time‐dependent AUC (0.737) for LREs. Using baseline LSM and ΔLSM, we proposed a risk stratification method to improve clinical applications. The risk proposed stratification based on LSM performed well in terms of prognosis: low risk ( n = 390; reference), intermediate risk ( n = 446; HR = 3.38), high risk ( n = 272; HR = 5.64), and extremely high risk ( n = 164; HR = 11.11). Conclusions Baseline and repeated noninvasive tests measurement allow risk stratification of patients with CHB and cACLD. Combining baseline and dynamic changes in the LSM improves prognostic prediction.