Longitudinal non-targeted metabolomic profiling of urine samples for monitoring of kidney transplantation patients

The assessment of kidney function within the first year following transplantation is crucial for predicting long-term graft survival. This study aimed to develop a robust and accurate model using metabolite profiles to predict early long-term outcomes in patient groups at the highest risk of early graft loss. A group of 61 kidney transplant recipients underwent thorough monitoring during a one-year follow-up period, which included a one-week hospital stay and follow-up assessments at three and six months. Based on their 12-month follow-up serum creatinine levels: Group 2 had levels exceeding 1.5 mg/dl, while Group 1 had levels below 1.5 mg/dl. Metabolites were detected by mass spectrometer and first pre-processed. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were employed to identify significant differences between the two groups. Nineteen metabolites were found to differ significantly in the 1^st week, and seventeen metabolites in the 3^rd month (adjusted p-value < 0.05, quality control (QC) < 30, a fold change (FC) > 1.1 or a FC < 0.91, Variable Influence on Projection (VIP) > 1). However, no significant differences were observed in the 6^th month. These distinctive metabolites mainly belonged to lipid, fatty acid, and amino acid categories. Ten models were constructed using a backward conditional approach, with the best performance seen in model 5 for Group 2 at the 1st-week mark (AUC 0.900) and model 3 at the 3^rd-month mark (AUC 0.924). In conclusion, the models developed in the early stages may offer potential benefits in the management of kidney transplant patients.